The freight market is heading into September with a little more strength than carriers have been used to seeing. Rates are holding firm, available truck capacity remains relatively tight, and spot-market conditions continue to look better than they did a year ago.
But there’s a catch: operating costs are climbing too.
Diesel prices jumped sharply to start September, which means even carriers benefiting from stronger rates still need to keep a close eye on margins and cash flow.
Here’s what we’re watching this month — and what it could mean for carriers.
Freight Rates Are Holding Strong
Dry van spot linehaul rates averaged $2.21 per mile for the week ending September 4, excluding fuel. That was up slightly from the previous week and more than 33% higher than the same time last year.
Rates were also about 21% above the nine-year seasonal average, putting the market near the upper end of its historical range for this point in the year.
That’s encouraging, especially after several years when carriers had to deal with softer pricing and a very competitive spot market.
There’s also strength across many parts of the country. DAT reported average outbound dry van linehaul rates of $2.29 per mile in the Southeast, while the Lower Atlantic averaged $2.34 and the Carolinas averaged $2.26 during the same week.
For carriers operating throughout the Southeast, that’s a meaningful improvement from the market we were looking at a year ago.
Tight Capacity Is Still Supporting Rates
One of the biggest reasons rates have remained elevated is that there simply aren’t as many trucks competing for the same freight.
During the first week of September, dry van load posts were about 42% higher than a year earlier, while available truck posts were still roughly 17% lower year over year.
That imbalance matters.
When fewer trucks are available relative to the number of loads being posted, carriers generally have more leverage when choosing freight and negotiating rates.
However, it’s important to understand why the market is tightening.
This isn’t necessarily a booming freight economy. Recent industry data suggests much of the rate improvement has come from capacity leaving the market, rather than a dramatic increase in freight demand. DAT noted in late August that freight volumes remained relatively soft even while rates strengthened.
In other words, conditions are better for the trucks that are still running — but carriers shouldn’t assume every lane or customer is suddenly paying premium rates.
Diesel Just Became a Much Bigger Issue
The biggest change heading into September is fuel.
The national average price for on-highway diesel reached $5.967 per gallon for the week of September 7, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That’s up from $5.599 per gallon just one week earlier.
For a trucking company, an increase like that can eat into stronger freight rates very quickly.
A carrier might see a better rate per mile and assume the load is more profitable, but fuel, insurance, maintenance, payroll and other operating costs all determine what actually reaches the bottom line.
That makes it especially important to look at each load as a whole — not just the number at the top of the rate confirmation.
Better Rates Don’t Eliminate Cash-Flow Problems
Even in an improving freight market, the basic cash-flow problem in trucking hasn’t changed.
You deliver the load today.
The broker or shipper may not pay the invoice for several weeks.
Meanwhile, fuel needs to go in the truck now. Drivers need to be paid. Repairs happen when they happen. Insurance premiums don’t wait for a customer’s payment terms.
That gap between doing the work and getting paid for the work is exactly why freight factoring continues to be useful for owner-operators and growing trucking companies.
Instead of waiting on an outstanding invoice, factoring allows a carrier to turn that receivable into working cash sooner and keep the business moving.
That can become even more valuable when expenses are changing quickly.
Broker Credit Still Matters
Stronger freight rates can make it tempting to grab an attractive load and move on to the next one.
But the rate is only valuable if the company on the other end of the invoice actually pays.
Carriers should continue checking broker and customer credit before accepting freight, particularly when working with a company they don’t know well.
A $3.00-per-mile load from a broker that struggles to pay its invoices can create a lot more trouble than a slightly lower-paying load from a dependable customer.
As rates improve and carriers get more choices, creditworthiness should stay part of the decision — right alongside rate, deadhead, fuel expense and delivery requirements.
What Carriers Should Watch This Fall
The freight market appears healthier than it did this time last year, but we wouldn’t call the coast clear just yet.
Capacity remains tight. Rates are strong. But freight demand itself is still somewhat uneven, and rapidly rising diesel prices could put additional pressure on operating margins.
For carriers, the next few months are a good time to stay disciplined:
Know your real cost per mile. Pay attention to fuel. Check broker credit before accepting unfamiliar loads. Keep enough working capital available to handle unexpected expenses. And don’t let slow-paying invoices dictate when you can put fuel in the truck or accept the next opportunity.
The Takeaway
September is giving carriers some reasons to be optimistic.
Dry van rates are well above where they were a year ago, fewer trucks remain in the market, and carriers may have more pricing power than they’ve had in quite some time.
But better rates don’t automatically create better cash flow.
Between rising diesel costs, normal operating expenses and the time it takes customers to pay freight invoices, managing when money comes into the business is still just as important as negotiating what a load pays.
At Trucking Partners, we help carriers turn freight invoices into working cash so they can keep their trucks moving without waiting weeks to get paid.
Have questions about freight factoring, fuel advances or broker credit?
Call Trucking Partners at (256) 737-8788. We’re here to help.